| 09 September 2011
Nick says...
One of the things I hate as a semi-knowledgeable boxing fan is trying to figure out when a particular fighter is going to start showing his age. Even in the case of someone in definite decline, like Roy Jones, the exact point at which he started to slide downhill is obvious only in retrospect.
Thus my quandary when trying to forsee how Saturday's heavyweight title fight between Vitali Klitschko and Tomasz Adamek is going to play out. Klitschko turned 40 last month, and Father Time could arrive to rob him of his dominance any day now. While younger brother Wladimir can probably jab his way to victory for 10 more years if he so desires, the more awkward, less technical style of Vitali probably won't hold up as well.
Yet even if Adamek is able to hustle Klitschko out of his comfort zone (and that's not guaranteed, as Adamek is 34 himself), the unholy trinity of height, reach and weight disadvantages will still be there staring him in the face. Can Adamek figure out a way to trump all of them that so many other challengers have failed to discover? I like Tomasz a lot, but I'm skeptical.
The fight itself has the feel of one that will go the distance. Adamek stopped people routinely at cruiserweight, but at heavyweight, not so much. Most of Klitschko's opponents do end up as KO victims, but two of the last four have made it to the scorecards (Shannon Briggs - barely - and Kevin Johnson) and neither of them have Adamek's talent. The Pole also has a solid chin.
Don't expect non-stop thrills, but this match-up should easily have more exciting moments than Wladimir's fight with David Haye earlier this year. Spurred on by the Polish fans, look for Adamek to give Klitschko a battle but not win enough rounds to pull off the upset. Klitschko retains his belt by unanimous decision.
There's a bout Saturday night on HBO as well, as Yuriorkis Gamboa collides with Daniel Ponce de Leon at Atlantic City's Boardwalk Hall. There's definitely some danger lurking for the undefeated Gamboa, as Ponce de Leon has serious KO power and is the first southpaw El Ciclon has fought since Jose Rojas in April 2009.
I'd feel even better about Ponce de Leon's upset chances if he was fighting the listless Gamboa we saw in 2010. Unfortunately, he's likely to see the 2011 version, the one who tore through Jorge Solis in March while looking every bit the part of a top 20 pound-for-pound boxer. Gamboa's defensive flaws appear to be lessening, and it's difficult to exploit them anyway when his offense is so dynamic.
Ponce de Leon has been knocked out before, by Juan Manuel Lopez back in 2008. Now that Gamboa looks like he's surpassed Juanma, I expect that he'll do something similar. I like Gamboa by TKO in the middle rounds.
BONUS PICK: I was all ready to pick Breidis Prescott to beat Paul McCloskey in the "Battle to See Who Will Get Rejected Asking Amir Khan for a Rematch." Then I saw that Prescott struggled to make weight and thought otherwise. So I'm going with McCloskey by decision, then a long, long wait to see if the Khan camp will call, email, Tweet or whatever. Somehow I think not.
