| 23 September 2011
The blog has been quiet this week because the wife and I are out in Las Vegas attending the wedding of two of our friends. On the plus side, that means I am out in Las Vegas, possibly my favorite place in the whole world (though not for long if the tables are as unkind to me as they've been over the past few days!).
Every time I'm out here, I like to take a gander at the betting lines on upcoming fights to get an idea of where the public is putting money. The two biggest fights on the fall schedule from a betting standpoint appear to be the Super Six final between Andre Ward and Carl Froch and the final chapter in the trilogy between Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez.
(Before I go on, I should mention that all lines mentioned in this article are from the sports book at the MGM Grand.)
For Ward-Froch, the line is moving in favor of making the American a bigger favorite. Ward opened at -270 and is currently at -300. Froch opened at +230 and stands right now at +250, and even though I slightly favor Ward to win, I must admit that I would be intrigued by betting on The Cobra. My big question would be if he can win emphatically enough to take a decision on American soil, especially in a fight that is not likely to be a pretty one and probably won't end in a knockout either way.
On that note, the major prop bet on Ward-Froch is whether it will go 11 full rounds, and the line has not moved: -450 for going 11 rounds and +350 for not going 11 rounds. Of course anything can happen in boxing, but even at +350 I wouldn't be taking the under. Both men are extremely crafty, and neither has shown much one-punch KO power against top competition - unless you count Froch's stoppage of Jermain Taylor, but I don't.
(UPDATE: Literally a minute after I posted this, I saw the report that a cut suffered by Ward during training has postponed this fight. As you may or may not know, all boxing action is only good if the fight in question goes on the specified date. So Ward-Froch bets are off, though I'd assume the lines will look somewhat similar when the bout is rescheduled. Maybe Froch will be a slightly smaller underdog if the betting public sees this as a sign of weakness on Ward's part?)
Meanwhile, Pacquiao is a heavy favorite to take care of JMM in their third meeting, opening and remaining at -800 to win. Marquez also in unchanged at +550, which might be worth a few bucks if you are a Pac-hater. Just don't be upset when it doesn't pay off.
The rounds prop bet is whether the fight will go 10 full rounds. The will go opened at even money and currently stands at +125. The won't go opened at -120 and has changed slightly to -145. This one's a little more interesting: Many fans seem to think Manny will have an easier time with JMM than he did in their first two battles, yet Marquez has been able to shake off multiple knockdowns in the past. I wouldn't be opposed to tossing some money on the will go 10 rounds bet and crossing my fingers that JMM can make it the distance even if he loses badly on the cards.
