| 17 September 2011
Nick says...
For all the justifiable hype over Floyd Mayweather as he returns to the ring tonight and the very real props he deserves for taking on a hungry, powerful young opponent who is probably still improving, any real attempt to break down his odds of beating Victor Ortiz really hinges on the answer to two questions: Is Mayweather rusty after (another) lengthy layoff? And at age 34, does he still retain all of his top notch quickness and reflexes?
If the answer to both questions is yes, then Ortiz will need to hurt Mayweather with something early to have any chance. That's because it rarely takes Floyd long to figure people out. Just ask Shane Mosley, who staggered Mayweather in the second round when they tangled and barely had another proud moment over the next ten rounds.
Yes, Ortiz is a lot more dangerous than the aging Mosley, and he's a southpaw, which might buy him a little more time. He also got tagged plenty of times by Marcos Maidana and Andre Berto, and neither of those men have anywhere near the precision and timing of Mayweather.
Things get a little more interesting if Money shows any signs of ring rust or aging. The guess here is that if he does, the perpetually confident Ortiz will be emboldened to force the action into more places Floyd would rather not be. If that happens, all bets are off.
Mayweather has never shown any negative effects of taking time away from the sport before, so it seems silly to forecast that this time. As for getting old, we won't know that until it happens. I'm also open to the idea that Ortiz is simply better than we think he is, especially because he's young enough that we could be seeing the best version of him every time out.
That leaves me exactly where I thought I'd end up, with the feeling that I simply can't pick against Mayweather until he gives me just cause. Even with the real risk involved in fighting Ortiz, I don't see that yet. Mayweather wins by unanimous decision, keeping the unblemished record that means so much to him.
The co-feature of the Star Power card is interesting in its own right, with burgeoning superstar Saul "Canelo" Alvarez tangling with Alfonso Gomez, best known for his run on The Contender and/or retiring the late Arturo Gatti. It's a twist on the usual youth versus experience theme we see so much in the sweet science because Alvarez has boxed many more professional rounds than Gomez despite being nine years his junior.
Canelo certainly appears to have all the tools, yet his performances often feel more workmanlike than sensational. What he could use to advance to the next step in his career is not just a win, but a scintillating stoppage.
There's some precedent for that, as Gomez was absolutely pummeled by Miguel Cotto back in 2008. He's solid in many areas but just doesn't have the quality (to steal a soccer term) of other world class fighters.
We don't know if Alvarez belongs in that category yet, but he's not far off if he keeps winning. I like Canelo by late round stoppage, continuing his ascent.
The remainder of the undercard lost much of its sizzle when Lucas Matthysse dropped out. Now we'll get Erik Morales versus Pablo Cesar Cano instead, which takes some of the starch out of El Terrible's comeback.
Cano is undefeated but is making a huge step up in terms of competition, while Morales proved earlier this year against Maidana that he still has much of what made him great. Unless Father Time only granted Morales a one-night stay, there's no reason to doubt him here. Cano's youth gets him the distance but not the win, and Morales wins by decision.
