| 15 October 2011
Nick says...
Selling a fight like the Bernard Hopkins-Chad Dawson light heavyweight title bout that will take place tonight at the Staples Center in L.A. as a pay-per-view-worthy attraction isn't easy. Despite the amazing accomplishments of the former and the unrealized potential of the latter, neither man is anything close to guaranteed excitement. Their approach to the sweet science is heavy on the science (Hopkins especially), light on the blood and guts.
At least Hopkins has been doing something about rectifying that issue in his recent appearances, fighting a more aggressive style while acknowledging it opens him up to greater risk. Of course greater is relative for B-Hop, the seemingly ageless 47-year old champ who will go down as the craftiest boxer of his era.
Dawson has the raw tools to give Hopkins serious problems, including fast hands, a southpaw stance and a naturally bigger frame. His talent seems to have been held back by what's inside his skull, as he's proven to be short on killer instinct and perhaps desire as well.
It's worth noting that while there are definite differences, there are also some similarities between Dawson and Jermain Taylor, who made his career off of consecutive victories over Hopkins back in 2005 and 2006. Whether he'll be able to harness enough of them under the guidance of John Scully when celebrated trainers like Emanuel Steward and Floyd Mayweather Sr. were unable to get the best out of Dawson is the big question in this one.
The other unknown is if Hopkins' attempts to press the issue will play right the strengths of Dawson, who would be more comfortable letting the fight come to him. It's very possible B-Hop will find that exchanging with Bad Chad is not in his best interest and have to switch up strategies on the fly - which, of course, he's more than able to do if necessary.
This has the feel of a "who wants it more" type of fight. Amazingly, even with 18 years on his opponent and retirement not too far off, that's almost certainly Hopkins. He approaches the sport like a passion while Dawson sees it as his profession.
Except for a Dawson KO, which would shock me, I could see any other outcome in this bout. Ultimately, I just can't pick against Hopkins without believing he's finished, and I think The Executioner will eke out a tight but unanimous decision.
Even if the main event is a tactical affair, the televised undercard holds the promise of more sustained action. That includes the co-feature, a contest for a vacant lightweight title between Antonio DeMarco and Jorge Linares.
DeMarco was pretty much clobbered by the late, electric Edwin Valero in early 2010, a loss which certainly brings no shame with it. He's rebounded with two wins since then, and the Mexican leftie has a formidable arsenal that includes straight lefts, right hooks and uppercuts.
Linares suffered his lone defeat two years ago and enters on a four-match winning streak. His mobility caused Rocky Jaurez fits last summer, and he's excellent at setting up power shots with his jab.
That style could prove problematic for DeMarco unless he's able to use his height and reach advantages to nullify it. Dictating the spacing and tempo could be critical for both men.
Since DeMarco and Linares both have been stopped before and have decent power, this feels like a fight that will not go the distance. It's somewhat of a toss-up between two young talents, but I'll take DeMarco by late TKO.
Also on tap is a 140-pound clash between Philadelphia's Danny Garcia and former WBO titleholder Kendall Holt. It's something of a classic storyline, with Garcia as the undefeated up-and-comer and Holt trying to claw his way back to the top of the division.
Since a subpar outing against Ashley Theophane on ESPN 20 months ago, Garcia has done nothing but impress. He'll look to keep up the momentum against the toughest competition he's ever faced, unless you truly believe that the Nate Campbell he beat earlier this year wasn't a washed up shell of his former self.
Holt may be best known for taking part in one of the most exciting minutes of boxing ever when he got up from two knockdowns to stop Ricardo Torres in 61 seconds four years ago. Power, heart and confidence he's got in spades, but he's also maddeningly inconsistent. If his head is on straight, he can certainly hand Garcia his first loss, but that may be a big 'if.'
Of all the fights we'll see on TV, this has the most potential to turn into a donnybrook. Holt will lay it all out there, but I can't pick against the younger, undefeated boxer. Garcia takes it by late stoppage.
Not to be overlooked is the always entertaining Paulie Malignaggi as he steps in against Orlando Lara. It's hard to believe the Magic Man is only 30 as it feels like he's been around forever. He took his share of lumps between 2008 and 2010, but he appears to be at least partially reborn as a welterweight.
Lora brings a 28-1-1 record with 19 KOs, so he is dangerous. But he's never fought anyone with the experience or panache of Malignaggi, and he was stopped by good but not great David Estrada last year.
That bodes well for Malignaggi. He could even try for his own knockout since he is trying to be more action-oriented at 147, but predicting one is silly considering he has one of the lowest KO percentages of any prominent active boxer. Add it all up and you get Malignaggi by unanimous decision, plus a few fun quotes if they talk to him after the final bell.
BONUS PICK: The WBO light heavyweight belt is up for grabs in Liverpool, and fittingly it's being contested by two British fighters. Nathan Cleverly, who may be the best young guy you've heard little about, takes on undefeated Tony Bellow.
This shapes up to be a traditional boxer versus slugger duel, and I like the boxer here. Cleverly takes a close but unanimous decision, perhaps setting him up to get into the mix on this side of the pond next year.
